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Has the metaverse failed?

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In November 2021, we did an article on what lawyers needed to know about the metaverse. Since then, the buzz around the metaverse has largely died. In this article, we start off with an overview of some of the predictions and expectations. Then we do a reality check. Next, we look in extenso at possible reasons why the metaverse failed. We conclude with some observations on how to move forward with a new vision of an immersive future.

Predictions and expectations

The concept of the metaverse really started drawing attention when Facebook Inc. changed its name to Meta in October 2021. The metaverse was seen as the inevitable evolution of the internet—a virtual space where the physical limitations of the real world did not apply. Proponents envisioned a realm where digital avatars would seamlessly transition between experiences, carrying their identities and assets with them. This digital utopia was expected to revolutionize how we interact with technology and each other, by offering unparalleled opportunities for connectivity and commerce.

Quite a few companies established a presence in the metaverse. Architects started designing virtual buildings, and real estate developers started developing and selling virtual real estate. There was talk of virtual cities, etc. The metaverse was predicted to be the big next thing, and its proponents urged everyone to get on board.

Reality Check

The reality of the metaverse, however, has been far less impressive. The metaverse has failed to live up to the excessive hype that built up in 2021 and early 2022, leading to a “metaverse winter” in 2023. This was mainly due to cooling interest, economic obstacles, and the immaturity of the required technologies. Despite the grand vision, the metaverse has faced significant challenges that have hindered its widespread adoption and development. We will have a closer look at those reasons below.

Financially, the metaverse has seen significant investment, with over $120 billion flowing into the sector in 2022 alone. McKinsey research had suggested that the metaverse could generate up to $5 trillion in value by 2030. However, these figures contrast with the current user experience, which clearly falls short of those expectations. The costs associated with developing metaverse platforms and the technological limitations have led to a gap between the envisioned economic boom and the actual value delivered to users. The metaverse has also been criticized for being a hype-fuelled fad, appealing mainly to gamers and celebrities, rather than the public at large.

By now, “peak metaverse is firmly in our rearview mirror. According to Google Trends, Facebook’s announcement of rebranding to Meta on October 21, 2021, was the catalyst for the upward trend in metaverse. Four short months later, we hit peak metaverse.” (Brian Christner). In other words, the hype lasted for four months only. “Far from being worth trillions of dollars, the metaverse turned out to be worth absolutely bupkus. It’s not even that the platform lagged behind expectations or was slow to become popular. There wasn’t anyone visiting the metaverse at all. The sheer scale of the hype inflation came to light in May [2023]. In the same article, Insider revealed that Decentraland, arguably the largest and most relevant metaverse platform, had only 38 active daily users.” (Brian Christner). Decentraland had invested 1,3 billion US dollars in the metaverse.

Reasons why the metaverse failed

Despite significant investments and extensive hype, the metaverse has faced numerous challenges that have hindered its widespread adoption and success. One of the main issues was – and is – the lack of a unified definition or understanding of what the metaverse actually is. While some early adopters can describe it clearly, many people still struggle to grasp its concept and purpose. Moreover, the technological infrastructure required to support a fully-realized metaverse is still in its infancy. Issues such as interoperability between platforms, user privacy, and the economic model are yet to be resolved.

Let us have a closer look at the reasons why the metaverse has failed thus far. The authors of the articles listed at the end of this article mention the following reasons for the metaverse’s shortcomings.

Overhyped and unmet expectations: the initial excitement surrounding the metaverse was immense, with many envisioning a revolutionary digital landscape. The bold promises from people like Zuckerberg set a high bar that current technology and market readiness could not meet. Many initiatives fell victim to massively inflated expectations, leading to expensive failures and a general sense of disillusionment. This decline in enthusiasm has been a significant factor in the metaverse’s inability to meet expectations. The metaverse’s close association with cryptocurrencies and NFTs, which have also faced their own set of challenges, further compounded these issues.

Immature technologies and tech limitations: the development of the metaverse relies heavily on technologies such as augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR). However, these technologies are still immature and have not reached the level of sophistication required for a seamless metaverse experience. The lag in VR headset adoption, for instance, has been a significant barrier to the metaverse’s growth.

Bad user experience: the abovementioned technical difficulties also resulted in a subpar user experience. Early iterations of the retail metaverse, for example, were plagued by technical glitches and clunky interfaces. These issues have made it difficult for users to fully immerse themselves in the metaverse, leading to disappointment and frustration. Add to that, that many people think Zuckerberg’s version of the metaverse is goofy, with characters that look like Nintendo Wii characters. (“You want me to wear this uncomfortable headset to be able to see myself as a badly drawn cartoon character?”)

Limited User Engagement: because of the bad user experience, user engagement has been minimal. We mentioned the example above of Decentraland, which is one of the largest and most relevant metaverse platforms, only having 38 active daily users at one point. This stark reality highlights the gap between the envisioned metaverse and the actual user adoption and engagement.

High cost of entry: the metaverse may be too expensive for some people to access. You need a VR headset, a fast computer, an up to par broadband connection, etc. Add to that, that most platforms based on blockchain — like The Sandbox and Decentraland — require the exchange of cryptocurrency for full functionality.

Privacy and safety concerns: the metaverse raises significant privacy and safety concerns that have yet to be adequately addressed. The amount and type of data created and collected through metaverse technologies result in major privacy challenges. Ensuring the safety of users, particularly children, in these virtual environments is a complex issue that requires new approaches and regulations. And then there’s the cybercrime aspect: criminals could use voice recordings from metaverse platforms against someone, or behavioural data could be mismanaged and sold to interested parties.

Economic and ROI Challenges: from an economic perspective, the metaverse has struggled to demonstrate positive returns on investment (ROI). Meta’s Reality Labs, for example, recorded a loss of $3.73 billion in one quarter alone in 2023. Retail metaverse initiatives have also largely failed to deliver truly unique, must-have shopping experiences. This makes it difficult to justify the high costs associated with developing and maintaining these platforms.

Shifting Focus to AI: finally, there is the impact of AI. Even companies that heavily invested in the metaverse are now shifting their focus to other technologies. Meta, for instance, has turned its attention away from the metaverse to AI, which is seen as the next big thing. This shift indicates a broader industry trend away from the metaverse as a primary focus.

Moving forward with a new vision of an immersive future

In summary, the metaverse’s journey has been fraught with challenges, from technical and user experience issues to economic and privacy concerns. However, by tempering expectations and adopting a more realistic and focused approach, there is still hope for the metaverse to find its place in the digital landscape. Several authors believe there still is potential for its future development. A more modest, grounded, and niche-driven approach may be the key to its next chapter. Lighter-weight, frictionless AR shopping interfaces accessible from smartphones, for example, could sidestep VR’s adoption barriers and provide more practical applications.

The journey of the metaverse probably is not over yet, and with all the investments that have been made, it is likely that it will continue to evolve. The key to its success lies in addressing the current shortcomings and aligning expectations with reality. As the technology matures and more people become familiar with the concept, the metaverse may yet find its place as a significant part of our digital lives. It will require patience, innovation, and a clear vision to bridge the gap between what was promised and what can be realistically achieved.

 

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